Bollinger bounce on gold: 65% win rate, -47.5R net

Source: Bollinger-band bounce, widespread

It wins often and still loses.

The filter that looked like a fix fell apart on the latest 120 days.

The 'fix', last 120 days

PF 0.30-0.40

This verdict is about the strategy as published, not about the person who shared it.

The claim

Here’s what the strategy promises, in its own terms.

Fade the band touch on gold; 65% win rate.

How we tested it

Same six checks as everything else here: random entries, coin flips, a look-ahead audit, unseen years, double costs and a luck check. How we test →

What we found

Three years of 15-minute gold: 1,996 trades, 65% win rate, profit factor 0.93, -47.5R, 82R maximum drawdown. A session plus Tuesday-Thursday filter looked like a fix (1.07) on the long window and then scored 0.30-0.40 on the latest 120 days; the fix was specific to a regime. Faster timeframes were worse (5-minute profit factor 0.09) because the spread is paid every trade. High win rate, net loser.

The numbers

The headline numbers from our test.

Trades	1,996
Win rate	65.1%
PF	0.93
Net	-47.5R
Max drawdown	82R
Filtered PF long window	1.07
Filtered PF last 120-day	0.30-0.40

• Profit factor: money won divided by money lost. Below 1.0 loses money. Around 1.0 is break-even.
• R-multiple: profit or loss measured in units of the amount risked per trade. +1R means you made what you risked.
• vs random: how the strategy did against the same trades with random entries.