'Wide-range setups pay better': it was the year, not the setup

Source: Candle-range-theory style hourly gold setups

Gold's hourly range was under $5 back then.

Any dollar-size rule on gold needs adjusting for volatility first.

This verdict is about the strategy as published, not about the person who shared it.

The claim

Here’s what the strategy promises, in its own terms.

Bigger-range setups pay better than tight ones.

How we tested it

Same six checks as everything else here: random entries, coin flips, a look-ahead audit, unseen years, double costs and a luck check. How we test →

What we found

786 signals over three years of gold. Wide setups showed profit factor 2.19 against 1.38 for tight ones, until split by year: there were zero wide setups before 2025 because gold's hourly range was under $5 then. The dollar-size bucket measured what year it was, not setup quality. Any dollar-threshold claim on gold must be normalised by volatility first. Taking the opposite side of every signal also lost (0.80).

The numbers

The headline numbers from our test.

Signals	786
Wide PF	2.19
Tight PF	1.38
Wide setups before 2025	0
Inverse PF	0.8

• Profit factor: money won divided by money lost. Below 1.0 loses money. Around 1.0 is break-even.
• R-multiple: profit or loss measured in units of the amount risked per trade. +1R means you made what you risked.
• vs random: how the strategy did against the same trades with random entries.