EMA 9 x VWAP cross on the 3-minute: PF 0.80 as stated

Source: Popular intraday rule on YouTube and X

Tuned versions held up 18% of the time. Random entries: 17%.

A thousand-plus tweaks did no better than random entries.

This verdict is about the strategy as published, not about the person who shared it.

The claim

Here’s what the strategy promises, in its own terms.

Go with the EMA 9 when it crosses VWAP; exit when price loses VWAP or the EMA.

How we tested it

Same six checks as everything else here: random entries, coin flips, a look-ahead audit, unseen years, double costs and a luck check. How we test →

What we found

Tested as stated on Nasdaq and gold, New York session, nine months of 1-minute data: profit factor 0.80 on Nasdaq and 0.83 on gold. We then tried 1,000+ variations (EMA 5-34, timeframes 1-60 minutes, four exits, ATR stops). Variations that looked good in the first half of the year held up in the second half 18% of the time on Nasdaq against 17% for random entries. On gold everything worked because gold trended; random did just as well. Method note: Two independent reviews of the test; the second found a leak in the random control that was fixed before publishing.

The numbers

The headline numbers from our test.

PF as stated Nasdaq	0.8
PF as stated gold	0.83
Variations held Nasdaq	18%
Random held Nasdaq	17%
Variations held gold	70%
Random held gold	65%

• Profit factor: money won divided by money lost. Below 1.0 loses money. Around 1.0 is break-even.
• R-multiple: profit or loss measured in units of the amount risked per trade. +1R means you made what you risked.
• vs random: how the strategy did against the same trades with random entries.

Two independent reviews of the test; the second found a leak in the random control that was fixed before publishing.