A weekly Nasdaq system that lost to just holding Nasdaq

Source: System published in a trading magazine

Just holding the index did better two years out of three.

This one lost to it two years out of three.

This verdict is about the strategy as published, not about the person who shared it.

The claim

Here’s what the strategy promises, in its own terms.

A rules-based weekly long system on Nasdaq with profit factor 1.2-1.5.

How we tested it

Same six checks as everything else here: random entries, coin flips, a look-ahead audit, unseen years, double costs and a luck check. How we test →

What we found

It does make money: profit factor 1.45, 1.21 and 1.41 in 2024, 2025 and 2026. Holding Nasdaq from Monday open to Friday close made 1.38, 1.53 and 1.78 over the same weeks. A long-only index system has to beat holding the index, and this one lost to it two years out of three.

The numbers

The headline numbers from our test.

System PF by year	1.45 / 1.21 / 1.41
Buy and hold PF by year	1.38 / 1.53 / 1.78
Years it beat holding	1 of 3

• Profit factor: money won divided by money lost. Below 1.0 loses money. Around 1.0 is break-even.
• R-multiple: profit or loss measured in units of the amount risked per trade. +1R means you made what you risked.
• vs random: how the strategy did against the same trades with random entries.